Key Market insights - Altifi Weekly Bulletin | 8 August 2025

Domestic macroeconomic indicators

Source: MOSPI, RBI

Indian debt market indicators

Source: Crisil Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield

^ Data as of 1st Aug 2025 vs 25th Jul 2025 vs 27th Jun 2025 respectively

India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*

Source: Crisil Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield

Economy and regulatory updates

·        India HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1 in July 2025 compared with 58.4 in June 2025, the Services PMI rose to 60.5 from 60.4 and the Composite PMI was unchanged at 61.

·        Gross goods and services tax (GST) collections rose 7.5% on-year to Rs 1.96 lakh crore in July.

·        The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) voted unanimously to hold the policy repo rate at 5.50%. Accordingly, the standing deposit facility, marginal standing facility and bank rates remained unchanged at 5.25%, 5.27% and 6.75%, respectively.

·        The RBI expects India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.5% this fiscal, supported by strong domestic demand, policy support and a good monsoon.

·        The apex bank cut the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation forecast for this fiscal to 3.1% from 3.7%.

·        Fitch Ratings cut India’s GDP projections for the current fiscal to 6.3% and said it expects corporates in the country to see limited direct impact due to the higher US tariffs.

·        The government proposed 2022-23 as the new base year for calculating GDP and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and 2024 for the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

·        The Union Cabinet has approved the third and fourth railway lines between Aluabari Road and New Jalpaiguri, which marks a significant milestone in enhancing rail connectivity in the Northeast.

·        The Centre has approved a project worth Rs 125 crore for landslide mitigation in Uttarakhand and has released Rs 4.5 crore for it in the first phase.

·        The RBI allowed banks to open special rupee vostro accounts (SRVAs) of correspondent banks without its approval.

·        The central bank introduced three customer-centric measures: It simplified KYC procedures via panchayat-level camps, streamlined claims for deceased account holders, and enhanced features on the Retail Direct platform for government securities.

·        The RBI issued revised guidelines to strengthen the co-lending framework between banks and non-bank financial companies (NBFCs).

Indian debt market update

·        The interbank call money rate ended lower at 5.00% on August 8 from 5.35% on August 1.

·        During the week, the RBI conducted variable rate repo (VRR) auctions for a total notified amount of Rs 4 lakh crore, against which it received offers amounting to around Rs 2.27 lakh crore.

·        Government bond prices ended lower in the week ended August 8. The yield of the 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 paper closed at 6.41% on August 8 compared with 6.37% on August 1.

·        Bond prices declined after the RBI held rates steady and trimmed FY26 inflation forecast to 3.1%, defying rate cut hopes.

·        However, earlier in the week, bond prices witnessed some gains on the back of a sell-off in US treasury yield.

·        In the weekly debt sale held on August 8, the RBI auctioned 6.68% GS (Government Security) 2032 and 7.09% GS 2074 for a total notified amount of Rs 25,000 crore.

Indian equity Indices

Source: BSE, NSE

Source: SEBI, NSE

Global equity benchmark indices’ returns

Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on Aug 7

Indian equity market updates

·        Indian equity ended lower for the sixth consecutive week, dragged down by renewed US tariff threats, sustained foreign fund outflows and lacklustre Q1 earnings. However, few gains were seen driven by a weak dollar index and lower crude oil prices. BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 0.92% and 0.82%, respectively.

·        Almost all the sectors ended lower with Healthcare, Realty and Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) losing the most. BSE Healthcare, BSE Realty and BSE FMCG fell 2.50%, 2.36%, and 2.21% respectively.

·        The domestic market bought Rs 26,479 crores worth of equities till August 7, 2025, compared with Rs 2,718 crores worth of equities till August 1, 2025.

·        Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 17,020 crores till August 7, 2025, compared with selling of Rs 2,822 crores till August 1.

Global Equity market summary

·        Global equity indices were higher in the week on region-specific cues.

·        US stocks ended higher during this week mainly on optimism over a possible rate cut in September (following weak jobs data), on upbeat corporate earnings and gains in Apple stocks on domestic manufacturing plans.

·        A surge in technology stocks after the US exempted domestic semiconductor manufacturers from the latest tariffs led to further gains.

·        However, some losses were seen due to fresh US tariffs on multiple trade partners and as trade data showed a sharp drop in the import of consumer goods.

·        Britain’s FTSE index ended higher this week as investors assessed corporate earnings and a rise in banking stocks.

·        However, gains were limited after the Bank of England cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point.

·        Other European equities ended higher during this week with France’s CAC rising 2.16% and Germany’s DAX gaining 3.27%.

·        European equities rose with support from strong corporate earnings and on expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.

·        Asian equities closed higher in the week. Japan’s Nikkei ended higher this week, buoyed by upbeat earnings from major companies and easing worries over the impact of US tariffs. 

·        Some losses were seen due to a fall in banks and exporters’ stocks as the yen became stronger.

·        Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended higher during this week due to upbeat Chinese trade data in July.

·        China's Shanghai Composite Index closed higher this week, buoyed by upbeat Chinese trade data for July and on hopes Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in its September policy meeting. Defence and banking stocks gave further gains.  

Major global bond yields

Source: Financial Websites *As of Aug 7  

Commodity prices

* Data as on Aug 7, 2025   

Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com

Other currencies vs the rupee

Source: Financial websites

Macro indicators

Global Yield

·        US treasury prices were flat due to uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy and a mixed set of economic data.

·        Treasury prices began the week on a positive after a far weaker-than-expected July non-farm payroll report and a new raft of tariffs were announced by President Donald Trump.

·        The yields rose further after Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation, giving Trump a chance to put a nominee on the central bank’s committee that sets interest rates. The market saw some gains after data showed stalling activity in the services sector in June.

·        However, these gains were capped due to profit-booking at a higher level.

·        The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.23% on August 7, compared with 4.23% on August 1.

Commodities and Currency

·        Crude oil prices fell during the week as concerns over a potential OPEC+ output increase and as US President’s comments on Russia talks raised doubts over new sanctions.

·        Gold prices ended higher this week due to safe haven appeal following new US tariff announcements.

·        The rupee closed lower against the US dollar this week because of concerns over US tariff and foreign fund outflows, despite gains from the Reserve Bank of India’s intervention.

Global Economic

·        US nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000 in July 2025, compared to sharply downward revised 14,000 in June 2025.

·        US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in July 2025 compared to 52.9 in June 2025.

·        Eurozone inflation rate held steady at 2.0% year-on-year in July 2025, unchanged from June 2025 while the annual core inflation rate steadied at 2.3% in July 2025.

·        The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4%, in a rare two-round vote that underscored sharp divisions over how to tackle sticky inflation and a softening economy.

·        UK S&P Global Services PMI edged down to 51.8 in July 2025 compared to 52.8 in June 2025 while the S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 51.5 from 52.

·        China Caixin General Services PMI rose to 52.6 in July 2025 compared to 50.6 in June 2025 while the Composite PMI dipped to 50.8 from 51.3.

·        Japan S&P Global Services PMI rose to 53.6 in July 2025, compared to 51.7 in June 2025 while Composite PMI edged up to 51.6 from 51.5.

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