Altifi Weekly Bulletin: 2nd January, 2026
Economy and regulatory updates
- India industrial production grew 6.7% in November, accelerating from the upwardly revised 0.5% in October.
- The Centre's fiscal deficit reached Rs 9.76 lakh crore by the end of November, 62.3% of the total budget target for the current fiscal.
- Gross GST collection rose 6.1% on-year to Rs 1.74 lakh crore in December on slow growth in revenue from domestic sales following the sweeping tax cuts. In December 2024, the figure was Rs 1.64 lakh crore.
- India HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 55.0 in December 2025, compared to 56.6 in November 2025.
- In its Financial Stability Report published in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that despite the near-term risks largely from external uncertainties, the Indian economy and its financial system have adequate buffers to withstand adverse shocks.
- The government has imposed a three-year import tariff of 11-12% on some steel products.
- The government amended the rules to streamline approvals for opening coal and lignite mines.
- The government decided to keep interest rates on small savings schemes unchanged for January-March, extending the status quo for another three months.
- The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved a significant investment of Rs 20,668 crore for two major highway projects—the Nashik-Solapur-Akkalkot Corridor and the widening of National Highway-326.
- According to an RBI report, Indian banks' asset quality improved to a multi-decadal low at the end of September.
- The central bank flagged structural pressures in the insurance sector, saying premium growth is being increasingly driven by high-cost distribution-led strategies of insurance companies rather than operating efficiency.
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) announced a set of reforms covering the issuance of duplicate securities and the basic services demat account (BSDA) framework in a move aimed at easing investor compliance and streamlining market processes.
Domestic macroeconomic indicators
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market
update
- The interbank call money rate ended higher at 5.35% on January 2 compared with 4.85% on December 26.
- Government bond prices ended the week lower and the yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.48% government security (GS) 2035 paper closed at 6.61% on January 2 compared with 6.59% on December 26.
- Earlier in the week bond prices fell due to the RBI’s purchases of short-term notes and heavy upcoming state debt supply. It declined further after a weak auction revived supply concerns, with traders wary ahead of the states' January–March borrowing calendar.
- In the weekly debt sale held on January 2, the RBI auctioned 6.48 % GS 2035 for a total notified amount of Rs 32,000 crore.
- However, a few gains were witnessed due to improvement in system liquidity and expectations of RBI support through OMO’s.
Indian debt market indicators
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average
Yield ^Data as on 26th December 2025 vs 19th December 2025 vs 21st November
2025 respectively
India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average
Yield
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended higher in the week shortened by holidays, supported by strong auto sales, optimism around third-quarter earnings and positive global cues. However, gains were capped by persistent foreign institutional investor outflows and fresh government tax on cigarettes. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 0.85% and 1.10%, respectively.
- Most of the major sectors ended higher with metal, power and auto gaining the most. The BSE Metal, BSE Power and BSE Auto rose 5.60%, 3.67% and 3.57%, respectively.
- The domestic market bought Rs 534 crore worth of equities on January 2, 2026, compared with buying of Rs 1,685 crore worth of equities on December 26, 2025.
- Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 3,254 crore on January 1, 2026, compared with selling of Rs 233 crore on December 26, 2025.
Indian equity Indices
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks declined during the week mainly due to profit booking in technology stocks and concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.
- Additionally, rising unemployment rate led to further losses. However, among shares that gained were communication services stocks.
- Britain's FTSE index closed higher during the week due to gains in banks and commodity-linked stocks.
- However, a few losses were witnessed due to weakness in precious metal miners and defence stocks.
- Asian equities closed mixed this week. Japan's Nikkei index ended lower, mainly dragged down by profit booking.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended higher during the week boosted by renewed optimism over China’s AI sector.
- However, losses were witnessed due to sharper-than-expected drop in industrial profits in China and profit booking.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index closed higher this week driven by strengthening yuan and fresh government commitments to boost domestic consumption.
- Additionally, artificial intelligence-fuelled rally led to further gains. However, few losses were witnessed profit booking at higher level.
Global equity benchmark indices’ returns
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on
December 31st ^Data as on December 30th
Global Yield
- US Treasury prices were down during the week weighed down by the latest jobless claims data and due to minutes from the recent December Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
- Bond prices declined after the new US jobless claims, the last major economic data before the New Year, came in lower than forecasts. Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 27 came in at 199,000, the Labor Department reported. That’s down 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level of 215,000.
- The prices fell also after the Fed’s minutes from its highly divisive meeting earlier this month showed a vote to lower interest rates again appeared to be a closer call. The move brought the federal funds target range down to 3.50-3.75%.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.18% on December 31 compared with 4.14% from December 26.
Major global bond yields
Source: Financial Websites *As on December 31st ^As of December 24th
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices rose to $57.42 per barrels on the NYMEX on week on 31, December 2025 due to a flare-up in geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia and fresh -
- Gold prices ended lower this week due to profit booking at higher level and strong dollar.
- The rupee closed lower against the US dollar this week, weighed down by persistent foreign fund outflows and sustained dollar demand. However, the central bank’s intervention offered brief support.
Commodity prices
*Data as on December 31st, 2025 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com
Other currencies vs the rupee
Source: Financial websites
Global Economic
- US Pending Home Sales increased 2.60% in November 2025 compared to a -0.4% decline in the previous month.
- US Dallas Fed general business activity index for Texas manufacturing fell 0.5 points to -10.9 in December 2025 compared to -10.4 in the previous month.
- US House Price Index decreased to 1.7% in October 2025 compared to 1.8% in September 2025.
- US Chicago PMI increased to 43.50 in December compared to 36.30 in November 2025.
- US Dallas Fed Services Index declined to -3.3 in December 2025 compared to -2.3 in November 2025.
- China NBS Composite PMI Output Index edged up to 50.7 in December 2025 compared to 49.7 in November 2025.
- China official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in December 2025 compared to 49.2 in November 2025 while the official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.2 from 49.5.
- China Total Industrial Profits edged up 0.1% to CNY 6.63 trillion in January–November 2025, easing from a 1.9% increase in the first ten months.
Macro indicators
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