Economy and regulatory updates
- India HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 55.0 in December 2025 from 56.6 in November 2025.
- India HSBC Services PMI stood at 58.0 in December compared with 59.8 in November, while the HSBC Composite PMI slipped to 57.8 from 59.7.
- According to the first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), India’s economy is expected to grow 7.4% in fiscal 2026, exceeding the government’s earlier projection of 6.3-6.8%.
- The United Nations has raised India's economic growth projection for 2026 to 6.6% from 6.4% earlier, and forecast 6.7% for 2027, attributing it to resilient private consumption and strong public investment.
- India has rolled out a new e-Production Investment Business Visa, or e-B-4 Visa for Chinese businessmen visiting the country for defined business purposes.
- The government announced a Rs 7,295-crore export support package, comprising a Rs 5,181-crore interest subvention scheme along with a Rs 2,114-crore collateral support, to improve exporters' access to credit
- The Ministry of Labour and Employment pre-published draft rules for the four labour codes and has invited feedback from stakeholders. It plans to implement the labour codes from April 1, 2026.
- According to data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), bank credit to industry grew at a faster pace of 9.6% in November 2025 as against 8.3% in the year-ago period.
- RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasised the need for sound underwriting standards and close monitoring of asset quality during a meeting with the chief executive officers of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs).
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) extended the timeline till March 1, 2026 for the implementation of an additional incentives structure for mutual fund distributors for onboarding new individual investors from B-30 cities and new women investors from any city.
Domestic macroeconomic indicators
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended lower at 5.30% on January 9, 2026, compared with 5.35% on January 2.
- Government bond prices closed lower in the week ended January 9 and the yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.48% 2035 paper closed at 6.64% on January 9 as against 6.61% on January 2.
- Government bond prices ended lower on account of concerns over persistent supply. Prices came under pressure due to record state borrowing plans and fresh central government debt sales. Further, bond prices declined due to fluctuating liquidity conditions and after the RBI buying focused largely on illiquid papers amid heavy quarterly borrowing
- In the weekly debt sale held on January 9, the RBI auctioned 6.68% GS (government security) 2040 and 6.90% GS 2065 for a total notified amount of Rs 29,000 crore.
- However, few gains were seen after strong demand helped absorb state issuances.
Indian debt market indicators
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield ^Data as of 2nd January 2026 vs 26th December 2025 vs 28th November 2025 respectively
India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended lower this week with the BSE Sensex falling 2.55% and Nifty 50 declining 2.45% due to jitters over global trade induced by concerns over the United States (US) announcing more tariffs and political uncertainty from Washington. Profit booking, rising geopolitical uncertainty, amid weak corporate earnings, also contributed to the fall. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 2.55% and 2.45%, respectively.
- Almost all major sectors ended lower with oil and gas, power and capital goods (CG) falling the most. The BSE Oil & Gas, BSE Power and BSE CG indices fell 5.69%, 5.46% and 3.37%, respectively.
- The domestic market bought Rs 5,341 crore worth of equities on January 9, 2026, compared with buying of Rs 534 crore worth of equities on January 2, 2026.
- Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 2,545 crore on January 8, 2026, compared with buying of Rs 544 crore on January 2, 2026.
- Domestic mutual funds remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 844 crore on January 6, 2026.
Indian equity Indices
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks rose during the week with Dow Jones Index rising 1.83% and Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.05%, owing to significant gains in financial and energy stocks. Additionally, healthcare and defence stocks rose after the US President Donald Trump proposed a $1.5-trillion military budget.
- However, a decline in technology stocks due to ongoing concerns pertaining to their valuations limited the rise.
- Britain's FTSE Index rose 0.94% during the week tracking gains in the healthcare stocks, while the precious metal mining and defence sectors also contributed to the gains.
- Furthermore, commodity-linked and banking stocks rose on improved economic prospects and supportive monetary conditions. However, the gains were limited as oil and retails stocks remained under pressure.
- Asian equities closed mixed this week.
- Japan's Nikkei Index ended 3.18% higher this week because of gains in the tech and defence stocks, as investors focused on domestic corporate developments.
- Additionally, renewed interest in artificial intelligence (AI) also contributed to the gains.
- However, a decline in chemical stocks, following China's ban on exports of dual-use items to the country, limited the gains.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended 0.41% lower due to escalating geopolitical uncertainty.
- However, a strong performance in information technology (IT) stocks limited the fall.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index closed 3.82% higher this week driven by surges in non-ferrous metals, tech stocks and improving investor sentiment owing to easing deflationary pressures.
- However, profit booking in financial stocks limited the gains.
Global equity benchmark indices’ returns
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on January 8th
Global Yield
- US Treasury prices ended flat during the week amid mixed economic signals.
- US Treasury prices ended flat because stronger economic data and productivity numbers reinforced expectations of slower pace of rate cuts, while intermittent declines followed weaker employment indicators and event-driven safe-haven demand.
- Markets also remained wary ahead of key economic data releases, with investors reassessing the growth outlook and the US Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.19% on January 8 compared with 4.19% on January 2.
Major global bond yields
Source: Financial Websites *As of January 8th
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices rose to $57.76 per barrels on the NYMEX on week on 8, January 2026 during the week on NYMEX due to concerns over supply from Venezuela, along with risks tied to Russia, Iraq and Iran.
- Gold prices ended higher this week due to haven demand amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil prices.
- The rupee closed marginally lower against the US dollar this week, weighed down foreign fund outflows, rising crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. However, a softer dollar index and likely intervention by the RBI limited the fall in the Indian currency.
Commodity prices
*Data as on January 8th, 2026 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com
Other currencies vs the rupee
Source: Financial websites
Global Economic
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell for a third consecutive month to 47.9 in December 2025, the lowest level since October 2024, compared to 48.2 in November 2025.
- US ADP employment increased by 41,000 jobs in December 2025, following a revised 29,000 loss in November 2025.
- Eurozone HCOB Services PMI eased to 52.4 in December 2025, compared to 53.6 in November 2025 while the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI slipped to 51.5 from 52.8.
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.8 in December 2025, compared to 49.6 in November 2025.
- UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in December 2025, compared to 50.2 in November 2025.
- Eurozone flash consumer price inflation eased to 2.0% in December 2025, compared to 2.1% in November 2025 while the annual core inflation rate slipped to 2.3% from 2.4%.
- Japan S&P Global Services PMI eased to 51.6 in December 2025, compared to 53.2 in November 2025, while the S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 51.1 from 52.0.
- Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.0 in December 2025 compared to 48.7 in November 2025.
- China annual inflation rate edged higher to 0.8% in December 2025 compared to 0.7% rise in November 2025.
Macro indicators
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