Altifi Weekly Bulletin - 10th October, 2025
Economy and regulatory updates
- HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded for the 26th consecutive month in September, though the pace of growth eased to 60.9 from 62.9 in August 2025. Also, HSBC India Composite PMI eased to 61.0 from 63.2 on-month.
- CRISIL stated that the gross non-performing assets of banks had likely bottomed out and is expected to range 2.3–2.5% by March 31, 2026. Bad loans had reached a historic low of 2.3% as of March 31, 2025.
- British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said India was on track to becoming the third largest economy by 2028 and that the UK was "perfectly placed to be partners" on that journey.
- The UK signed a £350 million contract to supply the Indian Army with UK-manufactured lightweight missiles as part of a deepening weapons and defence partnership between the two countries.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the final phase of Mumbai Metro Line-3, also known as Aqua Line.
- Prime Minister Modi also inaugurated Phase 1 of the Navi Mumbai International Airport, which was built at a cost ~Rs 19,650 crore.
- The Delhi government started a scheme to provide collateral-free loans to small businesses and women entrepreneurs, aiming to strengthen the national capital’s economy.
- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman launched a foreign currency settlement system in GIFT City.
- The Union Cabinet approved four major railway projects totaling Rs 24,634 crore to boost capacity and connectivity across central India.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced plans to introduce scale-based thresholds beyond which regulated entities such as banks and non-banking financial companies will need Board approval for lending to related parties.
- The RBI also proposed major changes to the framework for external commercial borrowing, linking borrowing limits to the financial strength of companies and allowing funds to be raised at market-determined interest rates.
- The RBI launched a retail sandbox for its central bank digital currency, enabling fintech firms to develop and test solutions for the ongoing pilot.
- RBI data revealed that states and union territories plan to borrow up to Rs 2.81 trillion through state government securities in the third quarter of the current financial year.
Domestic macroeconomic indicators
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended lower at 5.00% on October 10 vs 5.45% in the week-ended October 3, 2025.
- Government bond prices ended flat in the week-ended October 10. The yield of the 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 paper closed at 6.52% on October 10 unchanged from October 3.
- Bond prices had risen earlier in the week due to lower-than-expected quarterly borrowings announced by states and strong demand for state debt.
- However, the gains in prices were cut short due to profit booking.
- In the weekly debt sale held on October 10, the RBI auctioned 6.68% Government Security (GS) 2040 and 6.90% GS 2065 for a total notified amount of Rs 28,000 crore.
Indian debt market indicators
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield ^Data as of
3rd October 2025 vs 26th September 2025 vs 22nd August 2025 respectively
India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equity benchmarks ended higher this week, driven by upbeat loan growth data, optimism over the RBI’s lending reforms and renewed foreign fund inflows ahead of second quarter earnings. However, there were also some losses due to profit booking. The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 rose 1.59% and 1.57% over the week, respectively.
- All major sectors ended higher, with information technology, healthcare and realty gaining the most – BSE IT, BSE Healthcare and BSE Realty rose 4.28%, 2.68%, and 2.29%, respectively.
- The domestic market bought Rs 1,628 crores worth of equities in the week ended October 10, 2025, compared with Rs 2,862 crores worth of equities in the week ended October 3, 2025.
- Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 1,309 crore in the week ended October 9, 2025, compared with selling of Rs 1,503 crores week ended October 3, 2025.
Indian equity Indices
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI NSE
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks showed mixed performance during this week, The Nasdaq Composite Index ended higher, buoyed by a rally in technology and chip stocks amid optimism with regard to AI demand, whereas Dow Jones declined after a consumer expectation survey from the New York Federal Reserve showed weakening future expectations and rising inflation projection.
- Additionally, profit booking ahead of third quarter earnings season amid lack of economic data because of the government shutdown led to a further decline.
- UK’s FTSE Index rose in the week, supported by gains in banking and mining stocks. But few losses were seen due to unexpected resignation of France's new prime minister Sebastian Lecornu and his government.
- Japan's Nikkei Index ended higher, mainly after the presidential election results, and a weaker yen, which sparked hopes of higher public spending measures. Also, strong support from AI-related stocks led to further gains. But few losses were seen due to profit-booking ahead of a three-day weekend and the recent rally fueled by expectations of a potential increase in government stimulus.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended lower this week, as the US government shutdown triggered global growth concerns and because of fears that the AI boom may have overheated. Reports of weak spending in China raised concerns over consumption as well, with investors awaiting policy signals from the Communist Party’s key meet this month.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index closed higher this week, buoyed by strong gains in semiconductor, goldminers and AI-related shares. However, there were some losses as well due to profit-booking and fresh geopolitical frictions curbing investors risk appetite.
Global equity benchmark indices’ returns
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on 9th October
Global Yield
- US Treasury prices were flat during the week on account of the US government shutdown.
- The ongoing US government shutdown continued to impact the market, resulting in fluctuation yields throughout the week. The shutdown, which in its second week because of a standoff between lawmakers over funding, caused a delay in critical economic data releases, including the September jobs report.
- The data blackout has also made it challenging for the Federal Open Market Committee to determine the pace of future rate cuts ahead of its October meeting.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.14% on October 9 vs 4.13% on October 3.
Major global bond yields
Source: Financial Websites *As of 9th October
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices rose on easing oversupply after the OPEC+ production increase plans for November was more modest than expected.
- Gold prices ended higher on safe-haven demand, as the US government shutdown fueled uncertainty in the market.
- The rupee closed higher against the US dollar this week, supported by lower crude oil prices, initial public offering-related foreign fund inflows and likely RBI intervention. However, there were intermittent losses because of a strong dollar index.
Commodity prices
Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com *Data as on 9th October 2025
Other currencies vs the rupee
Source: Financial Websites
Global Economic
- US ISM Services PMI eased to 50.0 in September of 2025 compared to 52.0 in August 2025.
- US S&P Global Services PMI eased to 54.2 in September of 2025 compared to 54.5 in August 2025 and US S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 53.9 in September of 2025 compared to 54.6 in August 2025.
- US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.4% in September 2025, the highest in five months, compared to 3.2% in August.
- Eurozone HCOB Services rose to 51.3 in September 2025, compared to 50.5 in August 2025 and Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September 2025, compared to 51.0 in August 2025.
- Eurozone PPI fell to -0.6% in August of 2025 compared to 0.2% in July 2025.
- Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI fell to 46 in September 2025, from 46.7 in the previous month
- UK S&P Global Services PMI eased to 50.8 in September of 2025 compared to 54.2 in August 2025 and US S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 50.1 in September of 2025 compared to 53.5 in August 2025.
- Japan’s machine tool orders rose by 9.9% year-on-year to JPY 137,780 million in September 2025, accelerating from an 8.1% advance in the previous month.
Macro indicators
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