Economy and regulatory updates
- India’s consumer price inflation eased to 1.54% in September, compared with 2.07% in August.
- The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-linked inflation cooled to 0.13% in September 2025 compared to 0.52% in August 2025.
- The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.2% in September compared with 5.1% in August.
- The merchandise trade deficit surged to $32.15 billion in September 2025, up from a revised $24.42 billion a year earlier.
- The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2025 World Economic Outlook projects India’s growth at 6.6% in 2025, up from 6.5% in 2024, before moderating a tad to 6.2% in 2026, signaling continued domestic momentum despite rising trade barriers.
- The government made it mandatory for importers of certain products used exclusively for solar energy projects to register on the renewable energy equipment import monitoring system.
- The government opened the PM Gati Shakti portal to the private sector to help it optimise last-mile delivery services and develop infrastructure-based applications.
- The RBI announced the consolidation of its existing regulatory instructions issued up to October 9, 2025, into 238 master circulars across 11 categories of regulated entities and covering 30 thematic areas.
- The central bank announced the final redemption price for Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) 2017-18 Series-III. The final redemption date of the above tranche was October 16.
- The RBI said banks in India and their overseas branches have been permitted to lend in Indian rupees to persons resident in Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka to facilitate cross-border trade transactions.
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has streamlined the penalty framework for stockbrokers, removing 40 violations and reclassifying penalties for 105 violations as 'financial disincentives'.
- SEBI extended the timeline for disclosing the allocation methodology by angel funds in their private placement memorandum to January 31, 2026.
Domestic macroeconomic indicators
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended higher at 5.50% on October 17 compared with 5.00% on October 10.
- Government bond prices ended higher in the week ended October 17. The yield of the 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 paper closed at 6.50% on October 17 compared with 6.54% on October 10.
- Bond prices rose due to lower state debt cut-offs and on easing inflation data.
- However, these gains were capped on profit-booking and following weaker-than-expected demand at the RBI auction.
- In the weekly debt sale held on October 17, the RBI auctioned the 6.01% Government Security 2030 and 7.09% GS 2074 for a total notified amount of Rs 30,000 crore.
Indian debt market indicators
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield ^Data as of 10th October 2025 vs 3rd October 2025 vs 5th September 2025 respectively
India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended higher this week, supported by optimism over a potential United States Federal Reserve rate cut, positive domestic earnings and renewed optimism over foreign fund inflows along with the improved IMF forecast. However, heightened US-China trade uncertainties led to some losses. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 1.76% and 1.68%, respectively.
- Almost all the major sectors ended higher, with realty, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables (CD) gaining the most. BSE Realty, BSE FMCG and BSE CD rose 4.12%, 2.59% and 2.43%, respectively.
- The domestic market bought Rs 1,552 crores worth of equities on October 17, 2025, compared with Rs 1,628 crores worth of equities on October 10, 2025.
- Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 417 crore on October 16, 2025, compared with buying of Rs 636 crores on October 10, 2025.
Indian equity Indices
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks rose during the week driven by gains in chipmakers after President Donald Trump adopted a conciliatory tone regarding renewed US-China trade uncertainties. Moreover, renewed optimism for the Fed rate cuts led to further gains. The sentiment was reinforced by Powell's comments, which highlighted potential "downside risks to employment", strengthening expectations the Fed may lower interest rates as soon as December, contributing to the positive trend in the US stock market.
- However, there were a few losses due to the government shutdown and weakness in regional banks.
- Britain's FTSE index rose during the week, buoyed by a surge in mining stocks as Trump’s softer stance on trade tensions with China boosted investor sentiment and strong performance in consumer staples. Additionally, growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed, as well as easing political concerns in France, led to further gains.
- However, there were a few losses as investors were cautious ahead of gross domestic product data and lingering inflation worries.
- Asian equities ended the week higher. Japan's Nikkei index ended lower due to political turmoil after the junior coalition partner of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party decided to end the alliance. A decline in financial stocks which tracked sharp losses in US regional banks and a stronger yen led to further losses.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended lower after the US government threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports and restrict exports of critical software from November 1. Investor caution ahead of the release of key China economic data led to further losses. However, the expectation of a Fed rate helped.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index closed lower due to profit booking on renewed Sino-US trade problems. However, investor hopes over a fresh monetary stimulus from the government led to a few gains.
Global equity benchmark indices’ returns
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on 16th October
Global Yield
- US Treasury prices were up as the government shut down and a tariff-change announcement spurring demand for safe-haven bonds.
- Bond prices rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his speech at the NABE meeting in Philadelphia, left intact expectations for two more interest-rate cuts by the year-end. It rose further amid signs of credit stress in smaller US lenders
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 3.99% on October 16 compared with 4.05% on October 10.
Major global bond yields
Source: Financial Websites *Data as of 16th October
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices fell during the week on demand concerns following escalating US-China trade uncertainties and after the International Energy Authority’s forecast of a 2026 supply surplus.
- Gold prices ended higher in this week amid safe-haven buying following global trade uncertainty, intermittent weakness in the dollar index, US government shutdown and festive demand in the domestic market.
- The rupee closed higher against the US dollar this week, supported by central bank intervention, renewed foreign fund inflows, an intermittent weakness in the US dollar index and easing crude oil prices. However, persistent global trade uncertainties led to some losses.
Commodity prices
*Data as on October 16, 2025 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com
Other currencies vs the rupee
Source: Financial Websites
Global Economic
- US University of Michigan’s inflation expectations eased for the second month to 4.6% in October 2025, from 4.7% in September.
- Eurozone industrial production grew 1.1% year-over-year in August 2025, compared to a revised 2.0% increase in July.
- UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August 2025, compared to 4.7% in July 2025.
- The British economy grew by 1.3% year-on-year in August 2025, compared to an upwardly revised 1.5% increase in July 2025.
- UK Industrial production fell by 0.7% year-on-year in August 2025, compared to the revised 0.1% drop in July 2025 while the manufacturing production decreased 0.8% from a revised 0.1%.
- China Inflation Rate eased 0.3% in September 2025 compared to a 0.4% fall in August 2025.
- China producer prices dropped 2.3% in August 2025, compared to a 2.9% decline in July 2025.
- China’s trade surplus came in at $90.45 billion in September 2025 higher than the $81.69 billion recorded in the same month a year earlier.
- China Outstanding loan growth slowed slightly to 6.6% year-on-year in September compared to 6.8% in August.
- Japan industrial production dropped 1.6% in August 2025, compared to a 0.4% fall in July 2025.
- Japan’s producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in September 2025, keeping the same pace as in the previous month.
Macro indicators
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