Key Market insights - Altifi Weekly Bulletin | 19 September 2025

Economy and regulatory updates

• India’s wholesale prices increased by 0.52% in August 2025, compared to a 0.58% decline in July 2025.
• India unemployment rate eased to 5.1% in August 2025 compared to 5.2% in July 2025.
• India recorded a merchandise trade deficit of $26.49 billion in August 2025, narrowing slightly from the $29.7 billion gap in the corresponding period of the previous year.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched multiple development projects worth around Rs 36,000 crore in Bihar's Purnea district.
• The Ministry of Finance revised the GST rate framework, effective September 22, replacing the June 2017 notification.
• The Ministry of Consumer Affairs announced that companies manufacturing, packing, or importing goods before September 22 will not be obligated to place revised price stickers on unsold pre-packaged items after the change in GST rates.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) issued revised final guidelines for entities operating as payment aggregators (PAs), with an aim to enhance consumer protection and prevent fraud.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) set up a regulatory review cell to review all regulations every five to seven years, with the aim of strengthening the institutional mechanism for norms governing banks and other regulated entities.
• The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is considering allowing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to trade in select commodity derivatives for hedging in a bid to deepen institutional participation and boost liquidity in the commodities market.
• The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) plans to make further relaxations to make the registration process easier for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), including a common know-your-client (KYC) framework and smoother documentation through India Digital Signature.
• Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) approved changes in the minimum public offer (MPO) and timeline for meeting minimum shareholding requirements.

Domestic macroeconomic indicators

Indian debt market update

• The interbank call money rate ended higher at 5.60% in the week ended September 19 compared to 4.95% in the week ended September 12, 2025.
• Government bond prices ended lower in the week ended September 19. The yield of the 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 paper closed at 6.52% on September 19 compared to 6.49% on September 12.
• Bond prices fell tracking fall in the US bond prices after Fed Chair’s hawkish remarks tempered rate cut optimism. It declined further amid persistent worries about constant supply from the centre and states.
• Meanwhile, investors waiting for the borrowing calendar from the centre for the second half of the fiscal year, which is likely to be published before the end of September.
• In the weekly debt sale held on September 19, the RBI auctioned 5.91% GS (Government Security) 2028 and 6.33% GS 2035 for a total notified amount of Rs 36,000 crore.

Indian debt market indicators

India yields curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*

Indian equity market updates

• Indian equity ended higher this week, supported by optimism over a potential India-US trade deal, a 25-bps U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. However, some losses were seen due to profit booking. BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 0.88% and 0.85%, respectively.
• Almost all the sectors ended higher with realty, power and oil & gas gaining the most. BSE Realty, BSE Power and BSE Oil & Gas rose 4.36%, 2.71%, and 2.25%, respectively.
• The domestic market bought Rs 36,245 crores worth of equities till September 18, 2025, compared with Rs 27,275 crores worth of equities till September 12, 2025.
• Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 412 cr till September 18, 2025, compared with buying of Rs 152 crores till September 12, 2025.

Indian equity Indices

Global Equity market summary

• US stocks ended higher during this week after Federal Reserve cut rate in line with market expectations and signaled more rate cuts before the year end.
• However, few losses were seen after Fed chair raised labor market growth concerns and mixed set of economic data.
• Britain's FTSE index ended lower this week due to fall in exporter’s stocks amid stronger pound and sector specific loses.
• However, few gains were witnessed after the Bank of England kept policy rate unchanged and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
• Asian equities ended mixed this week.
• Japan's Nikkei index ended higher during this week amid hopes of artificial intelligence demand and rally in technology stocks due to potential US-China trade talks.
• However, few losses were witnessed after Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates steady and unexpectedly announced sale of exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended higher during this week mainly due to gains in technology stocks and supportive measures announced by Hong Kong’s Chief Executive.
• Additionally, progress in US-China talks led to further gains.
• China's Shanghai Composite Index closed lower during this week due to profit booking at higher lever after the sharp rally and stock specific losses.
• However, few gains were witnesses due to rise in technology related stocks.

Global equity benchmark indices’ returns

Global Yield

• US treasury prices declined during the week due to concerns over US economy and future monetary policy after the Federal Reserve trimmed policy rate.
• Bond prices declined further after fresh jobless claims data assuaged investors’ fears about a labor market slowdown.
• The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 bps and indicated 50 bps of more cuts in 2025. However, Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will be in a "meeting-by-meeting situation" regarding the rate cut outlook and framed the move as a risk-management cut. This indicates that the rate cut cycle may not be that deep.
• The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.11% on September 18 compared to 4.06% on September 12.

Major global bond yields

Commodities and Currency

• Crude oil prices rose during the week on supply worries amid rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
• Gold prices ended higher this week due to profit booking following fluctuations in the dollar index amid Fed rate cut decision.
• The rupee closed marginally lower against the US dollar this week dragged down by a stronger dollar index post Fed rate cut. However, few gains were seen from RBI intervention   and optimism over India-US trade talks.

Commodity prices

Other currencies vs the rupee

Global Economic

• The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25bps in September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range, the first reduction in borrowing costs since December.
• US Industrial Production increased 0.9% in August 2025 compared to a downwardly revised 1.3% rise in July 2025 while manufacturing production increased 0.9% year-on-year in August 2025, following a downwardly revised 1.3% gain.
• Eurozone consumer price inflation stood at 2.0% in August 2025, unchanged from July 2025 while the annual core inflation rate was at 2.3% for the fourth consecutive month in August 2025.
• The British economy expanded 1.4% year-on-year in July 2025, maintaining the same pace as in June 2025.
• The Bank of England voted 7–2 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 4%, with two members favoring a 25-bps cut to 3.75%.
• UK annual inflation rate held steady at 3.8% in August 2025, unchanged from July 2025 while the annual core inflation rate eased to 3.6% from 3.8%.
• China retail sales grew 3.4% on-year in August 2025, compared to 3.7% in July 2025.
• Japan's annual inflation rate eased to 2.7% in August 2025 from 3.1% in the previous month while core inflation came in at 2.7% on year, easing for the third month in a row to its lowest level since November 2024.
• The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term rate at 0.5% in September 2025, maintaining borrowing costs at their highest level since 2008.

Macro indicators

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