Altifi Weekly Bulletin - 26 Sep, 2025
Economy and regulatory updates
- India’s core sector output expanded 6.3% in August 2025, accelerating from the upwardly revised 3.2% increase in July 2025.
- India’s retail inflation for farm and rural workers increased to 1.07% and 1.26% in August from 0.77% and 1.01% in July, respectively.
- Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran affirmed the government's commitment to the 4.4% fiscal deficit target for this fiscal, maintaining market borrowing at Rs 6.82 lakh crore for the second half.
- India HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 58.5 in September 2025 from 59.3 in August 2025, HSBC Flash Services PMI declined to 61.6 from 62.9, and HSBC Flash Composite PMI slipped to 61.9 from 63.2.
- The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development raised India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection by 40 basis points to 6.7% in calendar year 2025 from its earlier projection of 6.3% in June 2025, driven by strong domestic demand and robust goods and services tax (GST) reforms.
- The government drafted a proposal to ease foreign investment rules to allow e-commerce companies such as Amazon to buy products directly from Indian sellers and then sell them to overseas customers.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) urged banks to reduce fees on consumer products such as debit cards and late payments, potentially impacting billions in revenue.
- The RBI established a Regulatory Review Cell to streamline regulatory changes.
- RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra asked The Clearing Corporation of India Ltd to create infrastructure to facilitate in currency pairs beyond the United States (US) dollar and the domestic currency.
- The RBI signed a renewed Statement of Commitment (SoC) to the FX Global Code.
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) raised the minimum net worth requirement for custodians to Rs 75 crore from Rs 50 crore in a bid to strengthen risk management systems.
- SEBI permitted more charitable entities to raise funds through the Social Stock Exchange (SSE) in a bid to broaden access to the platform.
- SEBI simplified the process of transferring securities from a nominee to the legal heir.
Domestic macroeconomic indicators
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended lower at 5.57% in the week ended September 26, compared with 5.60% in the week ended September 19.
- Government bond prices ended flat in the week ended September 26. The yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 paper closed at 6.52% on September 26, unchanged from September 19.
- Bond prices remained flat during the week as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the federal borrowing calendar.
- However, some gains were witnessed after strong demand at a state debt auction ahead of the RBI’s policy decision and borrowing plan release.
- In the weekly debt sale held on September 26, the RBI auctioned 6.68% GS (government security) 2040 and 6.90% GS 2065 for a total notified amount of Rs 32,000 crore.
Indian debt market indicators
India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended lower this week, following an abrupt hike in H-1B visa fees, uncertainty around US-India trade talks, and fresh pressure after the US President announced steep tariffs on branded drug imports. BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 2.66% and 2.65%, respectively.
- All the sectors ended lower, with information technology (IT), realty and consumer durables (CD) losing the most. BSE IT, BSE Realty and BSE CD fell 7.34%, 6.13% and 4.96%, respectively.
- The domestic market bought Rs 49,922 crores worth of equities till September 25, 2025, compared with Rs 38,199 crores worth of equities till September 19, 2025.
- Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 5,098 cr till September 25, 2025, compared with buying of Rs 352 crores till September 19, 2025.
Indian equity Indices
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks ended lower this week as a slew of economic data releases raised uncertainty over Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and investors booked profits.
- Markets declined further after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that policy makers need to balance inflation concerns with a weakening labour market in the next policy meet.
- However, some gains were witnessed due to a rise in technology stocks after Nvidia announced its OpenAI investment plan.
- Britain's FTSE index ended flat this week as gains from miners and defence stocks were counterbalanced by investors’ caution over inflation risk after Bank of England policy maker Megan Greene said that the risk of inflation in Britain will prove stronger than the central bank’s forecast and weak economic data.
- Asian equities ended mixed this week.
- Japan's Nikkei Index ended higher as easing concerns over the Bank of Japan’s ETF sales plan and investments in artificial intelligence boosted sentiments.
- However, some losses were witnessed due to a stock-specific decline.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended lower this week, driven by investors’ concerns over frothy valuations of global equities and a decline in the pharma sector after the US unveiled a fresh bout of tariffs on the industry.
- However, some gains were witnessed due to a rise in consumer and technology stocks.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index closed flat this week as earlier gains from technology stocks, after easing concerns over US-China trade talks, were offset by profit booking at a higher level.
Global equity benchmark indices’ returns
Global Yield
- US treasury prices declined during the week after economic data showed the US economy remained solid.
- US treasury yield rose after initial weekly jobless claims dropped to 218,000 from 232,000. It rose further after third-quarter US GDP was also revised higher, now showing expansion of 3.8% on an annualised basis.
- However, further gains in yield were capped following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointing to caution around the US central bank's next interest rate decision.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark treasury bond ended at 4.36% on September 26, compared with 4.25% on September 19.
Major global bond yields
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices rose during the week due to a drop in US crude inventories and supply concerns from Iraq, Venezuela and Russia.
- Gold prices ended higher this week on safe haven demand after the US decision on H-1B visa fees and persistent foreign fund outflows amid US-India trade uncertainty.
- The rupee closed lower against the US dollar this week, weighed down by sustained foreign fund outflows, concerns over the US hike in H-1B visa fees, and fresh tariffs on Indian imports, including branded drugs. However, intermittent RBI intervention and exporter dollar sales provided brief support.
Commodity Prices
Other currencies
vs the rupee
Global Economic
- The US economy expanded an annualized 3.8% in Q2 2025 compared to the downwardly revised 0.6% in Q1 2025.
- US PCE Prices declined to an annualized 2.1% in Q2 2025 compared to 3.4% in Q1 2025.
- US S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI eased to 52 in September 2025 compared to 53 in August 2025 while the S&P Global Flash Services PMI fell to 53.9 from 54.5 and the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI declined to 53.6 from 54.6.
- Eurozone HCOB Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September 2025, compared to 50.7 in August 2025 while the HCOB Flash Services PMI climbed to 51.4 from 50.5 and the HCOB Flash Composite PMI inched higher to 51.2 from 51.
- UK S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in September 2025, compared 47.0 in August 2025 while the S&P Global Flash Services PMI declined to 51.9 from 54.2 and the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI slipped to 51 from 53.5.
- The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept key lending rates at record lows for the fourth consecutive month during the September fixing. The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR)—the benchmark for most corporate and household loans—was held steady at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which guides mortgage rates, remained unchanged at 3.5%.
Macro indicators
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